Nairobi: While the rising food and fuel prices that Kenyans and other Africans face stem from both internal and external causes, their intensity is primarily due to inefficiency, corruption and poor planning in African countries. It is plausible to argue that fuel shortages would not be as severe as they are had it not been for political crises in Libya and other Arab states, but the food shortage was predictable. Agricultural experts have been warning about the looming global food shortages for several years, and any African government that is committed to the welfare of its people would have had plenty of time to prepare for them.

The Kenyan people experience these problems because the politicians appear to believe that the most important contingency to prepare for is the 2012 election.  Policy makers in several sub-Saharan countries are equally culpable because they have done little to prepare for the current crises.  The effect of the mounting food and fuel shortages will exacerbate the plight of the poor, destabilise some African countries socially and politically, and possibly delay important governance reforms.

Indeed, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently warned, these problems will severely challenge sub-Saharan Africa's recovery from the global financial crisis.

The IMF believes economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa has largely recovered from the global financial crisis and still forecasts 5.5 percent GDP growth this year and nearly six percent next year.  However, the IMF's prescriptions for dealing with the current food and fuel crises also appear to be short-sighted and misguided.

The IMF, which claims that several of Africa's central banks are moving very slowly to raise interest rates to keep pace with higher food and fuel prices, recommends the tightening of monetary policy.

According to media reports, the IMF deputy director for Africa, Saul Lizondo, has claimed that real interest rates are much lower than they were before the global financial crisis and that they need to rise in the face of the increase in oil and fuel prices if the recovery in growth is to be sustained.  This suggestion for tightening monetary policy could turn out to be a prescription for an economic disaster.

It could deepen and broaden poverty, discourage investors from borrowing funds for investment, severely hurt the small and medium enterprises, reduce productivity, give rise to higher unemployment and finally stall economic growth.

Moreover, any anti-inflation policy that discourages investment and reduces productivity is likely to be counter-productive because it will hike the prices of the few goods that are available and thereby accelerate inflation.

While it is reasonable for the IMF to urge Africa's central banks to be proactive rather than waiting for lots of evidence about the impact on prices, prudence dictates that these banks weigh carefully the need to control the food and fuel-induced inflation against the imperative to encourage SMEs, boost job opportunities and meet their citizens' fundamental needs.

Some planners now suggest counter-cyclical economic policies, which seek to maintain stability by going against the current trend, such as cooling the economy when it is growing, or stimulating growth when the economy is contracting.

Whatever policies African governments may design to tackle the current food and fuel crises, the primary concern should be the welfare of their citizens.

* Prof Sam Makinda teaches at Murdoch University, Australia.